In addition to conflict, climate change and natural disasters, pandemics have a drastic effect on world food supplies. The COVID-19 pandemic affected everyone. Millions retreated to their homes, either voluntarily or under mandate of local, state or national governments, to stop the spread of the disease that killed millions before vaccinations drastically slowed it.

Disinformation ran through society faster than the disease, causing unnecessary suffering and death. Irresponsible politicians and their minions used social media to deliberately lie about how the disease spread and the efficacy of vaccinations while promoting dangerous and deadly remedies.

Medical science has made huge strides to combat diseases like it, but pandemics decimate workforces, permanently alter social structures, increase food insecurity and destroy food sources and distribution infrastructures. While economic, social and political institutions can alleviate some of the suffering, there are usually insufficient resources available to help all of those in need.

COVID-19 was the first pandemic in the last 100 years, but may not be the last. There have been many througout recorded history. Nearly all have had the most devasting effects on the poorest and most vulnerable populations, including sick, young, old, displaced and hungry.

 
History

Unlike epidemicsoccurrence in a community or region of cases of an illness in excess of normal expectancy and endemic diseasesthose that are constantly present in particular localities or regions pandemicslarge-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area and cause significant economic, social, and political disruption are global and have increased over time because of international travel, urbanization, changes in land use and natural resource exploitation.^[1]

Pandemics, including influenza,a highly contagious viral infection of the respiratory passages causing fever and severe aching cholera,an infectious and often fatal bacterial disease of the small intestine, typically contracted from infected water supplies and causing severe vomiting and diarrhea bubonic plaguethe most common form of plague in humans, characterized by fever, delirium and the formation of inflamed lymph nodes smallpoxan acute contagious viral disease, with fever and pustules that leave permanent scars, was nearly eradicated by 1979 due to a vaccine and measles,an infectious viral disease causing fever and a red rash on the skin, usually contracted during childhood^[5] have a long history and many were recorded long before humans traveled easily around the planet. They devastated populations and altered social, political and economic structures.

Researchers use 4 methods to determine pandemic deaths:

• Excess deaths. Researchers estimate the additional number of deaths that occurred compared to the expected number of deaths in a typical year.
• Net population reduction. Deaths are estimated from change in population before and after the pandemic.
• Epidemiological modeling. Fatality rates are based on disease transmission over particular geographical areas.
• Recorded deaths. The number of officially reported deaths caused by the pandemic is used.^[6]

One of the first ever recorded, by the Greek physician Galen, began in 165 CE, at the height of Roman power and lasted 15 years. The outbreak spread through the Mediterranean world during the reign of Marcus Aurelius Antoninus, returing again between 251-266 CE. Some historians site it as the beginning of the decline of the Roman Empire.^[2]

It may have been spread by Roman soldiers returning from the siege of Seleucia, a city on the Tigris River. This disease from the East moved northward along the Rhine River.^[2]

The symptoms described by Galen included fever, diarrhea, vomiting, thirstiness, swollen throat and coughing, leading researchers to believe that this disease may have been smallpox. It is estimated to have killed 60 to 70 million people, reducing the number of taxpayers, army recruits, politicians, artisans and farmers that the republic depended on for its survival. Fields remained uncultivated, crops became more expensive, food production decreased.^[2]

In Europe, the 13th and 14th centuries were marked by dramatic climatic cooling and inconsistent weather. During the Great Famine of 1315 to 1317, up to 15% of the population of England and Wales died. Wages fell, grain prices rose, driven people into poverty and starvation, but the wealthiest 3% of households received 15% of the national income.^[3]

In January 1349 the Black Death reached London. It had already brutally passed through Florence, where 60% of the population had died in 1348, and between 1347 and 1351 it killed between 30% and 60% of all Europeans.^[3]

The plague induced vomiting, coughing up blood, black pustules on the skin and swollen lymph nodes, followed by death within days. Those most affected were members of marginalized populations, primarily the poor and minorities with limited access to medical care.^[3]

In 1918 the Spanish flu spread across the globe in only 4 months, killing more than 21 million people. In the U.S. it claimed 675,000 lives, more than the number of casualties in World War I, World War II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War combined.^[6]

Researchers now believe the Spanish flu began in the U.S., with the first recorded fatality on March 11, 1918 at Fort Riley in Kansas. Within a week, overcrowding and lack of sanitation caused 522 men to be admitted to camp hospital with flu symptoms. Outbreaks spread to Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama and California and to Navy ships docked at East Coast ports. American soldiers spread the flu to European battlefields, then to Norway, China, India, New Zealand, Puerto Rico, the Caribbean, the Philippines and Hawaii.^[6]

The flu seemed to target military personnel and not civilians, until the second wave appeared in December 1918 when Boston schools, saloons and soda shops closed. Chicago police officers were ordered to arrest anyone sneezing or coughing in public. In Nashville public gatherings in movie houses, dance halls and pool parlors were prohibited.

In 1918 the flu virus mutated. The immunity built up by those who survived previous infections was useless against new strains, leaving them defenseless. Despite the best efforts of pharmaceutical companies, they could not isolate the virus and develop a vaccine.^[6]

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Food Insecurity

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. A month later nearly a third of the world's population was restricted from moving around the planet.^[2],[4] The world shut down.

The pandemic caused the first major economic recession since 2007. In the U.S., by April 2020 tens of millions lost jobs or declining work hours, the number of new unemployment insurance claims reached a record high of about 7 million and unemployment rose to 14.7%. This was the largest monthly increase and highest rate since 1948 when unemployment data was first recorded.^[2]

Worldwide, food insecurity is experienced in greater proportion by marginalized groups, including individual of color, ethnic groups, women and children, those with low income jobs or no health insurance, the poor and those with psychological issues. Discrimination, inequitable distribution of federal funding, poor infrastructure and inadequate access to nutritious food were made worse by COVID-19.^[2]

Before the pandemic began, the U.S. food insecurity rate reached its lowest point since it began to be measured in the 1990s. In 2019, the U.S. food insecurity rate was its lowest in 20 years, with:

• 1 in 4 Native Americans, 23.5%
• 1 in 6 Latinos, 15.8%
• 1 in 5 Black, non-Hispanics, 19.3%
• 1 in 7 children, 14.6%
• 1 in 9 individuals, 10.9%
• 1 in 12 white, non-Hispanics, 8.1%.^[2]

Those improvements ended with the sudden arrival of the pandemic.^[2] During the pandemic the rate of food insecurity among Black Americans rose to 21.7%, more than 3 times higher than for white households. The rate of food insecurity for Hispanic households rose to 17.2%, more than twice than that of white households.^[7]

The Navajo Nation reported more per capita cases of COVID-19 than any state except New York and New Jersey. Diabetes is a major risk factor on reservations, where many people live in poverty without running water^[1] and basic sanitation required to maintain cleanliness and grow healthy food.

In 2020, 45% of COVID-19 cases but 79% of deaths in Washington, D.C. were of black Americans, who constituted more than 80% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Georgia and almost all COVID-19 deaths in St. Louis. In Iowa, Latinos were more than 20% of patients but only 6% of the population.^[1]

In Arizona, the National Food Access and COVID Research Team found that:

• about 32% Arizona households experienced food insecurity since COVID-19, a 28% percent change(32% - 25%)/25% x 100% = 28%
• Hispanic households, households with children and households that experienced job disruption were more likely to be both persistently and newly food insecure
In what year did the Black Death reach London?
• the majority of Arizona households were concerned about food becoming too expensive and unavailable
• they were also concerned about food safety and accessibility to food assistance programs
• most households repotrted changing some food-related habits, including spending more time cooking at home, throwing away less food, and keeping more groceries in their residences
• about 14% bought food on credit, 12% borrowed money from friends and family for food and 13% received food from food pantries.^[10]

Women, girls, native populations, individuals of color, the poor and others already suffering from food insecurity are most likely to feel the effects of pandemics. Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, women and girls represented 60% of the 811 million of the world's undernourished population. During the pandemic another 47 million women and girls were forced into poverty and in 2021, 150 million more women than men reported suffering from hunger.^[1] Between March 2020 and June 2021, 113,873 additional maternal and child deaths in 18 countries were due to COVID-19.^[9]

The pandemic also had a significant psychological impact. Many breadwinners lost their jobs during pandemics or worked at essential, but low-paying, jobs that put them in danger of contracting the disease. Parents' fear, anxiety and depression was passed on to their young children, who were more likely to experience physical, emotional, and sexual abuse than those living in food secure households.^[8]

Millions of farmers already dealing with food insecurity watched as local, national and global supply chain restrictions and resources and services needed to keep their farms producing disappeared. The populations of many of these poor countries are already suffering from malnutrition and starvation because of lockdowns, weak governance, unequal access to services, mistrust in state officials, sick labor forces, lack of fertilizers and seeds.^[3]

• Flower-growing activities in Kenya collapsed after lockdowns, along with exports of vegetables, nuts, coffee and cocoa.
• In India and Kenya where agricultural workers were considered essential, there was a lack of social distancing and personal protective equipment, leaving workers vulnerable to COVID-19.
• Transportation system breakdowns in Bangladesh led to food dumping and decreased prices for crops that could not be distributed to market.
• In Somalia there was a substantial decline in livestock exports and a large increase in imported food costs.
• Curfews in Yemen reduced work hours for agriculture-related businesses and markets as fruits and vegetables, needed to maintain minimal levels of nutrition, became scarce.
• Rohingya refugees, in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazara city, fishing port, tourism center and district headquarters in Southeastern Bangladesh settlement, lost already low-income jobs.^[3]

Before the pandemic there were about 47 million younger than 5 affected by wasting. Estimates during the first 12 months of the pandemic indicated that this number increased by 6.7 million, 80% of those in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This increased the number of child deaths per month by more than 10,000.^[5]

The effects of the pandemic on these groups did not end after the virus subsided and infection rates decreased. In 2022 the U.N. declared that without immediate humanitarian assistance, over 43 million people in 38 countries were at risk of famine, with those in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan and Yemen at the highest.^[6]

• The percentage of the global population not getting sufficient nourishment increased from 8.4% to 9.9% during the first year after the start of the pandemic. If this trend continues, 660 million people will be hungry by 2030.
• In 2022, models predicted that COVID-19 disruptions in food supply chains would increase the number of starving children to between 9.3 and 13.6 million.
• Supply chain disruptions during COVID-19 increased food costs and food insecurity for 811 million people who go to bed hungry every day.
• Between 2019 and 2022 the number of hungry people in West Africa quadrupled, reaching its highest levels in decades.
• In March 2022, world food prices increased by 13%, their fastest rate ever recorded, placing impossible financial burdens on low-income countries that rely on wheat, vegetable oils, and other food staples.
• The cost of minimum monthly food needs increased by 351% in Lebanon, 97% in Syria and 81% in Yemen.
• The price of wheat and oil increased by 300% in Somalia during the Ukraine crisis, forcing famiilies to turn to less nutritious options that cause malnutrition and obesity
• More than 6 million Somalis are moving toward starvation.
• In Kenya the cost of fertilizer was expected to increase by 70%, decreasing crop production by the same percent, forcing 3.1 million people to severe hunger levels.
• 5.5 million children in East Africa are facing high levels of malnutrition, due to the combined effects of COVID-19, intense drought, and the Ukraine crisis.
• Less than 40% of children in the Middle East and Northern Africa have access to diets needed for proper growth.
• COVID-19 economic impacts are expected to cause $29.7 billion in losses due to wasting and child mortality.^[6]

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COVID-19

Our reactions to COVID-19 varied by age, occupation, political ideology and life style. The retired and haves with non-essential jobs stayed home, while the have-nots and those in essential jobs went to work, risking their lives to keep others safe. Nurses, doctors, fire fighters, police officers, grocery clerks, truckers and others required to protect the society and maintain its food distribution infrastructure continued working.

Schools and colleges closed as classwork at all educational levels moved online. Zooming no longer meant to go fast, but to take classes online or engage with family and friends at a socially-acceptable distance.

Because the president at the time labeled the pandemic a hoax, supported by other members of his party, the federal government response was slow and inadequate. Leaders of conservative states blamed the virus on other sources, including homosexuality and China, while spewing disinformation, bigotry and hate on social media, claiming that prayer would eliminate the virus. It didn't.

Acts of violence against those who were perceived to be Chinese skyrocketed. Essential workers survived without adequate personal protective equipment as the virus ravaged both the U.S. and world populations. Political denial met Mother Nature. She won.

By the end of 2021, WHO, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) and the Economist estimated 14.8 million deaths, 18.2 million deaths and 17.8 million deaths respectively. Researchers estimated that there were about 27 million excess deathsthe additional number of deaths that occurred compared to the expected number of deaths in a typical year between January 2020 and November 2023, making it one of the deadliest pandemics of the century.^[2]

In the U.S. in 2020, only heart disease, with 690,882 mortalities and cancer, with 598,932, killed more people than COVID-19, with 345,323 attributed deaths.^[1]

The number of confirmed deaths is undoubtedly far lower than the actual number. Many countries had, and still have, no COVID-19 tests and cause-of-death registration still does not exist in many nations.^[2]

Researchers quickly discovered COVID-19 risk factors:

• most deaths were among those 65 years of age or older
• having a naturally weak immune system or taking medications that leave an individual vulnerable to infection
• being obese, suffering from a heart or lung condition.^[3]

Some individuals are left with long COVID, an outcome of the disease characterized by a list of symptoms including chronic fatigue and breathing difficulties. Current medical data indicates that those with autoimmune diseases, underlying medical conditions, multiple COVID illnesses and the unvaccinated are more likely to experience this condition. Many may have the symptoms for months, years or for life.^[4]

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Actions

A 2021 study food insecure households found that:

• 66% experienced a change of income after April 2020
• 46% relied on school meal programs to feed their children
• 58% used food pantries and food banks
• 45% used other food sources
• 59% depended on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
• 40% used the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC).^[1]

In 2021 the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) announced a $5 billion investment to address international food insecurity via the Feed the Future program for the next 5 years. The agreement includes a partnership with U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Eleanor Crook Foundation to use $100 million to address COVID-induced effects of malnutrition and food insecurity in developing countries:^[5]

• Nepal. Feed the Future connecting Nepali farmers and business owners with online delivery companies, enabling farmers to maintain produce sales and providing local families with nutritious food.
• East Africa. USAID provided almost $114 million in food assistance, medical supplies, and clean water. More than 20 million people in the area required emergency food assistance, an increase of 70% compared with 2017.
• Bangladesh. Feed the Future connected seed suppliers in the southern part of the country with farmers to provide resources to grow nutritious crops.
• Guatemala. Feed the Future partnered with the Inter-American Foundation to provide Guatemalan women access to low-interest rate loans to expand their businesses and land purchases to increase livestock production and access to nutritious food.^[5]

The World Bank created new financing projects:

• Sierra Leone. Emergency financing under the Smallholder Commercialization and Agribusiness Development Project supported the government COVID-19 response with services to support rice farmers.
• Guatemala. The Modern and Resilient Agri-food Value Chains project provided emergency response to COVID-19 and increased agricultural efficiency through investment in modern technologies and practices.
• Chad. $30 million in emergency financing was invested in food kits to 437,000 vulnerable people in urban and rural areas experiencing severe food and nutritional insecurity. Seeds and agricultural equipment were given to 25,000 poor and vulnerable farmers.^[5]

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Observations and Conclusions

• As the world's population increased and international travel became common, pandemics became more prevalent.
• Pandemics increase existing food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition in marginalized groups, including individuals of color, ethnic groups, women and children, those with low income jobs or no health insurance, the poor and those with psychological issues.
• The agricultural effects of pandemics, including COVID-19, are long-term and require international economic, political and social intervention, investment and cooperation in agricultural technology, food distribution and clean water systems.
• Contemporary data collection and analysis methods enable researchers to determine where the most vulnerable populations are located and if and when interventions are working to reduce hunger.

 
Resources

Denise Meeks, dmeeks@arizona.edu / tucsonkosmicgirl@gmail.com