By 2050 the world will need to feed more than 9 billion people.^[3] Increasing demands require more efficient ways to move nutritious food to the locations where it is needed most.

Food securityat all times individuals have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life was defined during the 1996 World Food Summit. It depends on three food characteristics:

• availability, sufficient quantities of food available on a consistent basis
• access, having sufficient resources to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet
• use, appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and sanitation.^[13]

For millions, none of these exist.

In 1943 Abraham Maslow introduced the concept of a hierarchy of needs. First among them are physiological needs, including air, food and water. He proposed that if these needs were unmet, safety, interpersonal relationships, self-esteem, personal growth and respect^[14][15] were unattainable.

When one is starving, food and water are the only needs that matter.

Food insecurity,the limited or uncertain availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods, or limited or uncertain ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways malnutrition,lack of proper nutrition, caused by not having enough to eat, not eating enough of the right things, or being unable to use the food that one does eat wasting,low weight-for-height, indicating recent and severe weight loss occurring when a person has not had food of adequate quality and quantity and hungera feeling of discomfort or weakness caused by lack of food, coupled with the desire to eat are complicated international problems affected by conflict, climate change and natural disasters.

While agriculture is a major economic driver in many poor countries, where it contributes between 10% and 20% of gross domestic productmeasures the monetary value of final goods and services produced in a country over a particular time period in lower-middle-income countries and more than 40% in low-income countries,^[10] agricultural improvements alone cannot alleviate food insecurity.

Hunger is a multifaceted problem also affected by economic, political and social issues. Each of these disproportionally affects poor and minority communities, increases poverty, damages food-producing ecosystems and distribution networks and raises fuel costs.^[1] Violence, prejudice, disinformation, disease, and lack of technology, funding and clean water all contribute to hunger and malnutrition.

In 2023 the United Nations World Food Program determined that:

• from 78 of the countries where it works, that more than 333 million people were facing acute levels of food insecurity, an increase of almost 200 million people compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels
• at least 129,000 people are expected to experience famine in Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia and South Sudan^[1]
• nearly 350 million people around the world are experiencing the most extreme forms of hunger with nearly 49 million suffering famine
• malnourished mothers give birth to malnourished babies, passing hunger from one generation to the next
• lack of nourishing food hampers physical and cognitive growth
• entire town and village populations are forced to leave their homes in search of food.^[4]

Children are especially affected. During the first thousand days of life, rapid growth and development require high nutritional requirements. But young children, suffering from food insufficiency and malnutrition are susceptible to infections, sickness and death.^[5] South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest levels of wasting. A food price increase as small as 5% over three months can increase childhood risk from wasting by about 9%.^[6],[9]

A 2022 U.S. Department of Agriculture and Economic Research Service report found that:

• 44.2 million Americans had difficulty accessing reliable food sources, an increase of 45% compared with 2021 as pandemic-era programs ended
• about 55% of food-insecure households participated in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and the National School Lunch Program
• more than 7 million households, especially those where adults worked in part-time and unstable jobs, experienced food insecurity, skipping meals and surviving on unbalanced diets
• 12.8% of households, significantly higher than the 10.2% in 2021 and 10.5% in 2020, were food insecure at some time during the year
• hunger for Black and Latino households were more than double those for white households
• in 381,000 households with children, kids sometimes didn't eat for an entire day.^[2],[8]

The differences in child mortality rates between countries with strong food distribution infrastructures and medical care for the youngest and most vulnerable is clear. In countries with more resources congenital abnormalities and accidents are the leading causes of childhood deaths. In poor countries with scarce resources the leading causes of death are related to malnutrition and disease: respiratory infections, diahhreal disease, whooping cough and measles. For example, the mortality rate for children between 1 and 4 years of age in South Sudan is more than 50 times that of the U.S.^[11]

Food insecurity and malnutrition can have long-term and devastating effects on learning, reducing test scores, causing students to repeat grades, increasing the need to meet with psychologists and creating confrontations among children and school suspensions.^[12]

Sources:

 
Conflict

The World Food Program raised $14.1 billion in 2022, far more than the $8 billion in 2019, but recently experienced a 60% funding shortfall. This means that about 45 of the countries in which it operates will suffer substantial food shortages, increasing the number of food insecure individuals from 333 million to more than 357 million in 2024.^[5]

Food insecurity and hunger have a long history. Colonialism weakened communities forced to grow cash crops to support colonizing powers. When the intruders left many agricultural policies and practices remained, continuing to support exports rather than the needs of residents and poor countries lack the financial and techological structures to adjust to increasing populations and new farming techniques.^[5]

• Asia and the Pacific. The number of acutely food insecure people rose from 62.2 million in 2021 to more than 69.1 million by the end of 2022. Decades of conflict, climate change and natural disasters have disrupted global food supply chains, increasing inflation and catastrophic weather events.

  In Bangladesh 900,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar are living with little food in overcrowded tent settlements in Cox's Bazar.a city, fishing port, tourism center and district headquarters in Southeastern Bangladesh



• Africa. The continent was particularly disrupted by colonial forces and subsequent withdrawal. About 50 million people in West and Central Africa will face hunger in 2024, an increase of 4% over 2023. Burkina Faso and Mali are facing additional challenges from violence between the military and jihadist insurgents. More than 540,000 Sudanese refugees from Darfur fled to Chad to escape massacres.

  When World Food Programme assitance declined in Uganda in 2021, many refugees stopped receiving food allotments and suicide rates have increased. Some families are now classified as child-headed households due to deaths and relocations. The UN reported that 5.7 million people in that country are food insecure, with 2.1 million suffering from acute hunger.

• Middle East and North Africa. Both rely on food imports because of supply chain problems, drought and increasing food prices. About 63% of those living in Gaza were food insecure before the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict began.
• Latin America and the Caribbean. World Food Program cuts have affected Haiti, Ecuador, Honduras and Colombia. Programs helping pregnant and lactating women and children under two years of age in Ecuador were suspended. In Honduras about 95% of children rely on school meals.

  In Haiti, gang violence has prevented needed food from reaching its hungry population, 40% of which is now facing severe hunger More than 750,000 people cannot get the assistance they need.^[5]

There are at least 7 major conflicts in the world directly increasing hunger:

• Democratic Republic of Congo. Decades of civil war killed millions and left millions of others as refugees. Conflict, displacement, disease, economic decline and natural disasters left one-third of the population starving, from 13 million in 2019 to more than 26 million in 2022.



• Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, beginning an eight-year conflict. Russia invaded again on February 24, 2022, causing destruction of buildings, thousands of deaths and massive displacement of Ukraine's population, separating people from their food sources.
• Afghanistan. Residents have endured decades of civil war, foreign inteference, rapidly changing climate conditions and widespread political and economic insecurity. In the 1980's local guerilla groups began a violent opposition to government forces. When the Soviet Union withdrew in 1991, the civil war that followed led to Taliban rule.

  After 9/11, a Western coalition targeted the Taliban and al-Qaida, immersing the country in a 20-year war. When the U.S. left in August 2021 the Taliban regained power, suffocating the country in misogyny, economic instability and widespread hunger. Up to 900,000 jobs were lost.

• Ethiopia. Decades of fighting with Eritrea, internal power struggles and years of devastating civil war in Tigray have displaced entire communities, blocked relief organizations from delivering food, severed communication with the outside world and destroyed infrastructure. Ethiopia is also home to Africa's second largest refugee population, with nearly 800,000 refugees from Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.
• South Sudan. In 2011 the country declared its independence from Sudan, beginning an era of continuing and widespread violence that has lasted more than a decade. The South Sudanese Civil War, a conflict between government and opposition forces, has produced violence, poverty and hunger. International attempts to create peace treaties have failed. More than 7 million people, 60% of the nation's population have no food security.
• Syria. The country has suffered more than a decade of internal and violent conflict in a civil war involving government, rebel forces and other domestic groups, attempted foreign intervention and ISIS. The war began during the Arab Spring protests in 2011.

  War crimes have resulted in the deaths of millions of civilians and there are more Syrian refugees in the world than citizens of any other country. About 12.4 million people, nearly 60% of the nation's population and a 57% increase since 2019, are suffering food insecurity.

• Yemen. Fighting in this poor Arab country began in 2015. More than a decade of war has killed thousands, displaced more than 4 million people, destroyed its transportation infrastructure and prevented international aid from reaching 16.2 million starving Yemenis. Malnutrition rates among women and children are among the highest in the world.^{[3],[4],[5],[6]}

Sources:

 
Climate Change

There is ample scientific evidence to demonstrate that climate change is real:

• in the last 75 years the number of record high temperature events has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing
• since the beginning of the Industrial Revolutionthe transition from creating goods by hand to using machines, generally accepted to have occurred between 1760 and 1840 surface ocean water acidity increased by about 30% due to human-related CO₂ emission into the atmosphere
• Earth's average surface temperature has risen about 1^oC, 2^oF, since the late 19th century, caused by increased CO₂ emissions
• most atmospheric warming occurred in the past 40 years
• NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment showed that Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019 and Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year
• glaciers are retreating in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa
• during the last 5 decades Northern Hemisphere snow has decreased and melts earlier in the year
• since 1969 the top 100 meters, 328 feet, of Earth's ocean have warmed by 0.33^oC, 0.67^oF
• global sea level rose about 20 centimeters, 8 inches, in the last century but over the last two decades that rate has accelerated, causing the oceans to absorb between 20% and 30% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, between 7.2 and 10.8 billion metric tons1,000 kilograms or 2204.62 pounds per year.^[10]

Summer 2023 was the hottest ever recorded and 2023 set records for climate-related disasters:

• 15 cities in Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Alabama and Arizona had record-breaking heat streaks at or above 100^oF
• at the top of the list were Tucson, with 53 consecutive days and Bryan, Texas, 50 consecutive days, and Austin, Texas, 45 consecutive days
• Phoenix had record-breaking streaks at or above 105^oF on 56 days and above 110^oF for 31 days
• during the first 8 months of 2023 the U.S. had already experienced a record $23 billion weather and climate disasters with combined estimated losses of $57.6 billion.^[15]

• increases existing and creates new challenges to human health and safety, quality of life and the rate of economic growth
• endangers those in low income and marginalized communities who frequently lack the resources needed to prepare for climate change
• affects food production, water resources, energy distribution, transportation, public health, international trade and national security
• requires international efforts to reduce greenhouse gases
• modifies precipitation distribution, increasing drought severity and reducing snowpack which affects ground and surface water availability directly affecting agriculture
• alters geographic range and distribution of insects that expose populations to diseases including lyme, zika, West Nile and dengue
• disrupts the livelihood of native populations that depend on agriculture, forestry, fishing, recreation and tourism.^[8]

Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s and the buring of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas, human activities have been the main driver of climate change. Burning fossil fuels produce greenhouse gases that trap solar energy in Earth's atmosphere, increasing our planet's temperature.[9]

Climate change globally affects agricultural crops, livestock and fisheries as well as pests and pathogens that damage agricultural products and destabilize food supplies.^[1]

The effects of climate change will depend on the agricultural sector's ability to adapt to these changes using effective strategies including crop rotation methods, new planting times and locations, genetic selection and drought-tolerant species development, fertilizer improvements and pest and water management. Implementation of new methods will also require maintaining a safe and healthy food supply.^[1]

Plants are sensitive to changes in carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels, sunlight and precipitation. Crops grow only in particular temperature ranges and as global temperature change increases crops will need to be grown in different locations, in different soils and under different precipitation conditions which may or may not affect their growth.^[3]

The most agriculturally-productive countries are also the largest CO₂ producers.

• China. The country, with a population of 1.45 billion in 2022, was the world's leading agricultural producer in 2020. In 2019 it was 9th in global agricultural exports.^[13]

  It has 10% of Earth's arable land, primarily in the eastern and southern regions and its agricultural food output was valued at $1.5 trillion. It produced 1/4 of the world's grain, leading in production of cereals, cotton, fruit, vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs and fishery products. Farm work accounts for about 25% of national employment.^[13]

  But China is no longer self-sufficient in food production. By 2020 it relied on imports valued at more than $133.1 billion to provide more than 23% of its food. Declining soybean output, rising grain imports and farmland losses to industrial and urban development are responsible for its growing dependence.^[13]

  China is also the largest emitter of CO₂ gas on the planet, with 11,336 million metric tons emitted in 2021. In 2021 about 58% of the country's energy came from coal burning in industrial and power plants.^[14]

• India. The world's second-largest country by population had the second-highest agricultural output at $403.5 billion in 2020, with $382.2 billion in food production. In 2019 it was 9th in global agricultural exports.^[13]

  India is the world's largest producer of milk, jute, dry beans, lentils and chickpeas, the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat, sugarcane, fruit, vegetables, cotton, and groundnuts and the world's largest exporter of refined sugar and milled rice.^[13]

  It is self-sufficient in grain production, but relies on subsistence agriculture,farming in which nearly all of the crops or livestock raised are used to maintain the farmer and the farmer's family, leaving little, if any, surplus for sale or trade leading to inefficient water use. The country also depends on rain from seasonal monsoons.a shift in winds that often causes a very rainy season or a very dry season Infrastructure and distribution system problems have caused as much as 40% crop loss.^[13]

  It is the third-largest CO₂ producer, with 2,674 million metric tons produced in 2021 primarily from coal and petroleum.^[14]

• The U.S. In 2020 the nation was third in agricultural food output at $306.4 billion, despite a far smaller agricultural workforce than China or India. Exports were valued at $147.9 billion increasing to $177 billlion in 2021 with no increase in planting acreage.^[1]

  As part of the global economy, the U.S. exports more agricultural products than it imports, including corn, soybeans, dairy, wheat and sugar cane.^[13] Canada, Mexico and Japan are the leading importers.^[1]

  California's Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world, accounting for 13.5%, twice as much as any other state. Its more than 69,900 farms and ranches produce more than a third of U.S. dairy products, fruit and nuts and it leads the U.S. in almond, cotton, grape, hay, rice and tomato production.^[13] Its agricultural industry accounts for $49 billion, generating more than $100 billion in related economic activity.^[2],[4]

  A CO₂ climate change study concluded that increased temperature and precipitation, along with elevated ozone and nitrogen from fertilizers, would have a negative effect on crop yields. California will need to find ways to reduce CO₂ output and institute new crop growth strategies to maintain agricultural production levels that support a substantial part of the U.S. food supply.^[3]

  Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, Minnesota and Illinois are also major agricutural producers.^[13]

  The U.S. is the world's second-largest CO₂ emitter, with 5,032 million metric tons produced in 2021 from transportation, electric power and industry.^[14]

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Natural Disasters

The effects of events called natural disasters have vastly different outcomes depending on local vulnerability, warning, preparation, response, knowledge and the ability to reconstruct damaged agricultural, hydrological and transportation infrastructure. They become disasters with loss of life and injury.^[12] Each of these is affected by economic, political and social factors that often function inadequately in poor countries.^[11]

A U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) study found that between 2006 and 2016 the agriculture sector absorbed approximately 23% of all damage and loss caused by natural disasters in developing countries.^[21]

Between 2019 and 2021 locusts swarmed across the Horn of Africa and East Africa. Kenya and Ethiopia sprayed millions of hectares of cropland and pastures with dangerous chemical pesticides. As a result, billions of honeybees died or abandoned their hives.^[19] Bees are a critical part of the agricultural ecosystem and pollinate millions of pounds of crops worldwide.^[20]

Injuries and death resulting from natural disasters:

• may result in the death of or injury to the family breadwinner
• destroy places of employment
• force young family members to work in dangerous environments to make up for income loss
• eliminate access to fresh vegetables, fruits or meat
• create reliance on foods with low nutritional value.^[4]

• water contamination
• loss of livestock
• increased susceptibility to disease
• destruction of irrigation systems and other agricultural infrastructure.^[3]

Events considered a natural disaster in one country ill-equipped to deal with it may be an infrastructure blip in another. While deaths from any natural disaster are always tragic, the outcomes of two earthquakes in wealthy and poor countries have vastly different results.

On October 17, 1989 the town of Loma Prieta, near San Francisco, experienced a 6.9 earthquake that killed 63 people. Most of the fatalities were caused by the collapse of the Oakland Bay Bridge and the Cypress Street Viaduct.^[13] No food shortages resulted from the quake.

On October 8, 2005, a 7.6 earthquake struck Kashmir, Pakistan, killing more than 79,000, destroying more than 32,000 buildings and leaving more than 4 million homeless. International relief efforts were delayed by aftershocks, landslides and damaged roads and highways.^[14]

A high proportion of victims are often women and girls who often have limited access to information, financial services, land and property rights and health and education, all of which affect their resilience and survival.^[15] Women may be coerced or forced into sex for food and shelter and girls are at an increased risk for trafficking and into early marriages simply to survive.^[16]

While natural disasters occur in both developed and undeveloped countries, death tolls in poor countries are far higher and their impacts are more devastating to food and human capital resources.

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Observations and Conclusions

• Hunger and food insecurity are complicated and widespread international problems affected by economic, political and social issues.
• Conflict is more likely to occur in countries already experiencing food insecurity.
• The U.S., China and India are responsible for most CO₂ emissions, but poor countries suffer far more from the resulting climate change, characterized by drought, floods, fires and storms.
• While conflict and climate change are not new problems, both are caused by humans, create food shortages and destroy food distribution infrastructure.
• Natural events, including earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes, have occurred for billions of years. Now, however, the lives of millions of humans, plants and animals are affected by these events, turning them into natural disasters when they occur near population centers and in agricultural areas.
• As the world's population increases, hunger and food insecurity, like conflict and climate change, will worsen without coordinated and multinational intervention.

 
Resources

Denise Meeks, dmeeks@arizona.edu / tucsonkosmicgirl@gmail.com